Crude oil prices crashed 60% from highs last year, rebounded for a few months this year, and then tumbled into a bear market.
Many in the oil market attributed the collapse to a market that was heavily oversupplied.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil stocks are currently near an 80-year high.
But as Bloomberg’s Simone Foxman and Saijel Kdishan report, Hall’s most recent letter to clients said, “the world, whilst moderately oversupplied, is not awash in oil.”
Hall’s Astenbeck Capital Management hedge fund was, however, crushed by the ugly downturn in oil prices two months ago and lost about 17% in July — its second-largest loss ever. The fund was flat in August.
According to Bloomberg, Hall said in his latest note to clients there’s still room to store about 200 million barrels of oil, adding that current prices reflect a “worst case scenario.”
Again, official data from the EIA show that US crude stockpiles have definitively surged within the past year, though it seems that Hall doesn’t think this as dire a signal for the market as current prices reflect.