The completely unscientific Super Bowl Predictor is accurate 80% of the time, somehow
Bearish? Photo: Associated Press
Blame something else on the Patriots: They could make it harder to build on Dow 20000 now, if you believe the stock-market indicator based on the Super Bowl.
For the years following 40 of the 50 Super Bowls, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen when an original National Football League team has won, and fallen otherwise. The so-called Super Bowl Predictor had worked for seven straight years (2009-15), until fumbling in 2016, but still has an 80% accuracy rate based on the Dow’s direction.
Though totally unscientific, the indicator popularized by veteran analyst Robert H. Stovall has been studied by academics and remains one of Wall Street’s many quirky indicators.
This year, the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots will square off in the Super Bowl on Feb. 5. According to the indicator, the market in 2017 will rise if the Falcons, an original NFL team, win. But the Patriots, which come from the old AFL, would deflate the market, according to the indicator, as happened in 2015 when the market fell for the year after the Pats beat Seattle.
Last year, the seven-year winning streak for the Super Bowl Predictor was snapped when the Denver Broncos, an old AFL team, won the big game, but the market rose anyway. (Carolina would have counted for the bullish side because teams with no roots in either the original NFL or the AFL count for the conference that they’re in.)
By the way, the only previous time that the Falcons made the Super Bowl, in 1999, the Predictor misfired. Denver won that game, which again was a bearish signal, but the Dow rose 25% in 1999 including its first close above 10000.