Patriots Bearish, Falcons Bullish in Super Bowl – By  William Power Jan 27, 2017 10:02 am ET

The completely unscientific Super Bowl Predictor is accurate 80% of the time, somehow

Bearish? ENLARGE

Bearish? Photo: Associated Press

Blame something else on the Patriots: They could make it harder to build on Dow 20000 now, if you believe the stock-market indicator based on the Super Bowl.

For the years following 40 of the 50 Super Bowls, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen when an original National Football League team has won, and fallen otherwise. The so-called Super Bowl Predictor had worked for seven straight years (2009-15), until fumbling in 2016, but still has an 80% accuracy rate based on the Dow’s direction.

Though totally unscientific, the indicator popularized by veteran analyst Robert H. Stovall has been studied by academics and remains one of Wall Street’s many quirky indicators.


This year, the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots will square off in the Super Bowl on Feb. 5. According to the indicator, the market in 2017 will rise if the Falcons, an original NFL team, win. But the Patriots, which come from the old AFL, would deflate the market, according to the indicator, as happened in 2015 when the market fell for the year after the Pats beat Seattle.

Last year, the seven-year winning streak for the Super Bowl Predictor was snapped when the Denver Broncos, an old AFL team, won the big game, but the market rose anyway. (Carolina would have counted for the bullish side because teams with no roots in either the original NFL or the AFL count for the conference that they’re in.)

By the way, the only previous time that the Falcons made the Super Bowl, in 1999, the Predictor misfired. Denver won that game, which again was a bearish signal, but the Dow rose 25% in 1999 including its first close above 10000.

Stocks Hit New Highs, and That Could Be Just the Start – By CORRIE DRIEBUSCH and AARON KURILOFF Aug. 11, 2016 6:36 p.m. ET

Some traders see the makings of a ‘melt-up,’ or surge from record levels

 Analysts see a shift in how investors are valuing stocks that supports the case for further gains from current market levels. Above, the New York Stock Exchange.

Analysts see a shift in how investors are valuing stocks that supports the case for further gains from current market levels. Above, the New York Stock Exchange.Photo: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg News

A troika of stock indexes hit records in tandem for the first time since 1999. The question is whether the party is just getting started.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all rose to highs on the same day, an alignment that hasn’t occurred since Dec. 31, 1999. The records punctuate a march that defies stocks’ sharp downdraft at the year’s start. The ratio of stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq hitting 52-week highs versus 52-week lows recently surged to its highest level in years.

“The last time we’ve seen levels like this consistently was in 2013, which went on to be one of the best years for stocks,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director of institutional equities at Instinet LLC. In 2013, the S&P 500 rose 30%.

Article continues:

Something just happened in the stock market that was a precursor to the 1987 crash – Bob Bryan Aug 4 2016

After breaking all-time highs, the stock market has been on a bit of a losing streak lately.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined in eight of the past nine days, including the past seven days straight. The index has only given back 1.5% in that time, but the consistent downward moves do not portend good things on the horizon.

According to Tom Leveroni of Nautilus Investment Research, this is the 10th time since the start of the 20th century that the Dow has had such a downward streak, and it historically has had negative connotations.

“Asterisk aside, this pattern has not been good historically,” Leveroni wrote in a note to clients Wednesday morning. “The Dow closed lower 1 month and 1 year later in 6 of the 9 occurrences since 1900 with 5 signals precisely marking cyclical tops (1901, 1919, 1966, 1976 and 1987).”

The historical average loss for the Dow after an eight-for-nine-day losing streak over the last nine times was 0.94% in the next week, a loss of 4.42% over the next three months, and a 6.39% loss over the next six months. The worst such loss was a 31.06% drop after a signal on November 14, 1919.

Leveroni, however, also believes in the contrarian’s constant refrain: This time it’s different.

Article continues:

Investors Fret as ECB Looks Poised to Get More Negative – By Christopher Whittall and  Min Zeng Updated March 6, 2016 11:09 p.m. ET


Some fear unintended consequences as European Central Bank is expected to cut a key rate further into negative territory

Many economist expect the European Central Bank, headquartered in Frankfurt, to increase its bond-buying stimulus program and to cut rates this week.

Many economist expect the European Central Bank, headquartered in Frankfurt, to increase its bond-buying stimulus program and to cut rates this week. — Photo: daniel roland/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

For investors, one question dwarfs all the others this week: How low can you go?

The European Central Bank is expected on Thursday to push a key interest rate even further into negative territory, a move that is at once widely anticipated by markets and viewed with trepidation.

Analysts and investors say the ECB’s action likely will drive down government-bond yields, further reducing borrowing costs that are already near record lows in many nations. Stocks and many commodities may extend a rebound from a selloff early this year that was driven by worries over the global economic outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday climbed above 17000 for the first time in two months.

Yet many investors warn that trading will likely be volatile and that markets could be roiled if the ECB provides less stimulus than expected.

Article continues:

Apple set to join Dow Jones replacing AT&T – BBC News March 2015

Apple logo

Apple, the biggest US company by market value, will be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 19 March.

It replaces AT&T, which first joined the US stock market barometer in 1916.

Despite being one of the most successful US firms, Apple was excluded from the Dow because its high stock price would have distorted the price-weighted index.

But a change in the structure of Visa shares, which is in the same sector, has made room for the iPhone maker.

From 18 March, Visa shares will be split four-for-one, which reduces the weighting of the information technology sector in the overall index.

“As the largest corporation in the world and a leader in technology, Apple is the clear choice for the Dow Jones Industrial Average,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Apple’s own seven-for-one stock split last June also helped pave the way for it to join the Dow Jones.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is calculated by taking the sum of the share prices of its 30 stocks and dividing the total by a number known as the Dow Divisor.

The divisor is continually adjusted to accommodate structural changes to companies and to maintain continuity.

Article continues:

Why the Stock Markets Jumped During Yellen’s Testimony The Dow jumped nearly 200 points as Janet Yellen made her first congressional appearance as Fed chair. – By Danielle Kurtzleben 二月 February 11, 2014

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen listens while testifying before the House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, on Feb. 11, 2014.

The markets liked what Fed Chair Janet Yellen had to say to a key congressional committee on Tuesday.

On Janet Yellen’s first day as chair of the Federal Reserve, the Dow Jones industrial average fell by 326 points. Today, her first appearance before Congress as Fed chair, markets gave her more of a welcome.
The Dow peaked more than 225 points above its open, or around 1.4 percent, as members of the House Financial Services Committee peppered the new central bank head with questions about unemployment and interest rates. The Dow closed nearly 193 points ahead, and the S&P 500 Index likewise gained nearly 20 points, or 1.1 percent.

What has investors so excited? Here are three reasons markets gained ground throughout Tuesday.

Article continues: